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Analysis

With clock ticking in Lebanon and Gaza, are Israel’s ceasefire deals near collapse?

As implementation deadlines approach this Saturday and Sunday, Israel doubts Hamas' ability to meet its obligations and says some Hezbollah infrastructure remains in place.

Smoke billows from a fire that Lebanese media reported was lit by Israeli forces in the southern Lebanese village of Burj al-Muluk, near the border with Israel, on January 21, 2025. Local media reports added that the fire engulfed a house and construction equipment related to a national water management project. (Photo by AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)
Smoke billows from a fire that Lebanese media reported was lit by Israeli forces in the southern Lebanese village of Burj al-Muluk, near the border with Israel, on January 21, 2025. — AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — The upcoming interim deadlines in the phased implementation of Israel’s ceasefires with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are threatening both deals. They are also presenting US President Donald Trump with a foreign policy test just days into his presidency. 

Will Hamas release Arbel Yehud?

The ceasefire deal with Hamas in effect since Jan. 19 requires the Palestinian group to release the second batch of 33 Israeli hostages, as established for the initial phase. Having freed three female hostages last Sunday in return for 90 Palestinians released from Israeli jails, Hamas is now supposed to release four additional Israeli women on Saturday, Jan. 25, in return for dozens of Palestinians serving life sentences in Israeli prisons.   

One of the Israeli women scheduled for release, Arbel Yehud, kidnapped from her kibbutz on Oct. 7, 2023, is believed to be in the hands of Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian militant group, prompting concerns that Hamas might use that as an excuse to delay her return. 

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