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Analysis

Turkey in post-Assad Syria: Balancing PKK, jihadist threats & opportunities

Although pleased with the rebel takeover in Syria, Ankara wants to avoid the instability that gripped Iraq after the 2003 US-led invasion.

People celebrate the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad and Baath Party rule, Umayyad Square, Damascus, Dec. 8, 2024.
People celebrate the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad and Baath Party rule, Umayyad Square, Damascus, Dec. 8, 2024. — LOUAI BESHARA/AFP via Getty Images

Since the downfall and exile of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey has taken steps to prevent the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), its Kurdish adversary in Syria, from taking advantage of the situation and expanding its profile and area of control on its southern border. 

The SDF and its component Syrian Kurdish groups linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) may be Ankara’s immediate concern in Syria, but the larger issue is to avoid the type of instability that befell Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion.

Experts who spoke to Al-Monitor warn that although things appear calm for the time being, renewed fighting in Syria could pull Turkey into a vortex of chaos and potentially lead the international community to blame Ankara for the violence. Despite this, some believe that Turkey enjoys unique advantages in Syria in the longer term.

Post-Assad

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