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Analysis

2024 turnaround: Assad fall grants Turkey’s Erdogan electoral rebound

Despite facing a historic defeat in local elections, Erdogan’s foreign policy wins, including Turkish-backed rebels’ victory in Syria, appear to have bolstered his domestic support.

Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, attends the third session of the G20 Leaders' meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov, 19, 2024.
Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, attends the third session of the G20 Leaders' meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov, 19, 2024. — MAURO PIMENTEL/AFP via Getty Images

ANKARA — Despite his party having suffered a major defeat in local elections in April, 2024 turned out to be a historic year for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who secured some significant foreign policy successes in the region, most notably with Turkish-backed Syrian rebels' recent victory in toppling Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad. 

Though Erdogan faced an unprecedented defeat in the April 2024 local elections, his ruling party losing its position as the party with the largest vote share for the first time since its inception in 2001, Ankara’s foreign policy successes seem to be helping boost the Turkish president’s support on the domestic front.

Turkish-backed rebel groups and their Islamist allies' victory in toppling the Syrian regime on Dec. 8 has given Ankara some influence over Syria’s transition period. Turkey has significant sway over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that toppled Assad's regime.

"Turkey has been the country that has embraced and respected Syrians the most," Syria's de-facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, told a Turkish newspaper days after the fall of the Syrian regime. 

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