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Analysis

With leverage in Syria, can Russia's Putin broker Israel-Lebanon deal?

Israel is considering accepting the Russian push for some sort of involvement in the talks or in the implementation of a deal with Hezbollah.

In this pool photograph distributed by Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a flower-laying ceremony at the Monument to Minin and Pozharsky on Red Square on the National Unity Day in Moscow on November 4, 2024. (Photo by Mikhail TERESHCHENKO / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL TERESHCHENKO/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
In this pool photograph distributed by Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a flower-laying ceremony at the Monument to Minin and Pozharsky on Red Square on the National Unity Day in Moscow on November 4, 2024. — MIKHAIL TERESHCHENKO/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Amid a fierce push for a cease-fire in Lebanon, Russia is currently seeking to play a part in the indirect talks between Israel and Hezbollah aimed at achieving an agreement that would secure a truce and outbid the diplomatic push led by the United States. 

A senior Russian official told Israeli public broadcaster Kan earlier this week that Moscow is ready to get involved in Israel-Lebanon negotiations. According to the report, Moscow will not take an active role in the mediated talks, but rather will use its leverage in Syria to prevent the smuggling of arms from Syrian soil into Lebanon, including pressuring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to end the smuggling. Israel may agree to Russia's assuming such a role, per the report. 

Indeed, speaking in Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated on Nov. 8 that Russia is in touch with all parties in the Middle East conflict in an effort to find resolution. He did not indicate whether he was referring only to Lebanon or also to Gaza. "We are in constant contact, literally with everyone. If not every day, then every week. Let’s try to follow this path," he said, without offering further details.  

On the Israeli side, there are also signs of willingness to involve Russia in a potential future agreement with Hezbollah. The Israeli army radio station reported Sunday that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's, secretly visited Russia last week, in what appeared to be part of Israel’s efforts to reach a cease-fire in Lebanon.

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