The Lead: US Intel community assesses the threats from Iran and Russia

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Director of Central Intelligence William Burns and other top national security officials are testifying this week before the House and Senate Select Committees on Intelligence on the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, the unclassified “collective insights” about “the most direct, serious threats to the United States during the next year.”

Here are some report highlights showing how the intelligence community has assessed the threats from Russia and Iran, providing background and context for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and negotiations about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal.

Russia:

• Non-interference pact with US: “Russia does not want a direct conflict with US forces” and “seeks an accommodation with the United States on mutual non-interference in both countries’ domestic affairs and US recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence.”
• US trying to undermine Putin: “Russia’s officials have long believed that the United States is trying to undermine Russia, weaken President Vladimir Putin and install Western-friendly regimes in the former Soviet states and elsewhere, which they conclude gives Russia leeway to retaliate.”
• Increase clout in Middle East: “Moscow is using its involvement in Syria, Libya and Sudan to increase its clout, undercut US leadership, present itself as an indispensable mediator, and gain military access rights and economic opportunities.”
• Nuclear weapons to deter conflict with US, NATO: “Moscow views its nuclear capabilities as necessary for maintaining deterrence and achieving its goals in a potential conflict against the United States and NATO, and it sees a credible nuclear weapons deterrent as the ultimate guarantor. … Moscow continues to develop long-range nuclear-capable missile and underwater delivery systems meant to penetrate or bypass US missile defenses.”
• Top cyberthreat: “Russia is particularly focused on improving its ability to target critical infrastructure, including underwater cables and industrial control systems, in the United States as well as in allied and partner countries, because compromising such infrastructure improves and demonstrates its ability to damage infrastructure during a crisis.”
• Weaponizing energy: “We expect Russia to continue to use energy as a foreign policy tool to coerce cooperation and force states to the negotiating table, as it recently did in 2021 when Russia stopped coal and electricity exports to Ukraine.”

Iran: