Turkey may have reached a milestone last week in its dreams to become energy independent. Although the Erdogan government’s timeline appears dubious and there is understandable domestic skepticism, various technical, financial and political dynamics will decide whether Turkey will grab or pass this gas and oil opportunity.

On Aug. 21, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a big find of natural gas off Turkey’s western Black Sea coast. While Erdogan addressed the nation during the live broadcast from Istanbul’s historic Dolmabahce Palace, Erdogan’s son-in-law and Minister of Economy Berat Albayrak, together with Energy Minister Fatih Donmez, joined the spectacle from the main deck of the Fatih drilling ship, which made the discovery. The event was suffused with nationalist and religious symbols. 

The gas field, alternatively dubbed “Tuna-1” and “Sakarya,” reportedly holds 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, which Erdogan promised to supply to Turkish consumers by 2023. One expert cited in a previous Al-Monitor story called the 2023 goal “technically impossible.” Even the pro-government newspaper Yeni Safak cited officials who estimated that it would take seven to 10 years for production to begin.

Many in the opposition questioned the veracity of the Turkish government’s claims, calling it a “rabbit out of a hat” trick. Veteran journalist Rusen Cakir, however, took a different tone. Cakir ascribed the announcement to Erdogan’s “need for good news” because “Turkey has not been governed well for a long time. Or, more accurately, it has been governed very poorly. And for that reason, the country is in a serious crisis in every area — economic, political, cultural.” Cakir added how Erdogan has trouble in exciting base but even such news may not help him: “There is no possibility to pull a rabbit from the hat because there is no hat.”