Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have a security window of opportunities at the moment, made possible by timing and circumstances, in particular his complicated situation. He has nothing to lose and plenty to gain, but will he take advantage of that window to launch a preemptive strike on the infrastructure developed by Hezbollah for producing rockets and precision missiles and that is becoming more firmly established in Lebanon?

The annual forecast for the coming year released by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security on Dec. 15 includes the following explosive statement: “Preparations are necessary for aggravated scenarios, including a possible Israeli decision to launch a preemptive strike on Hezbollah.” That one sentence lit a fire under the Israeli defense establishment and also set in motion a tsunami of speculation about the possibility of a conflagration on Israel's northern front.

The staff of the Jerusalem Institute consists of experienced experts, many of whom still have ties to Israel’s defense and intelligence establishments. The most prominent of them is Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor to Netanyahu. Amidror is clearly identified with the right, but he was never the kind of adventurer who wanted to implement solutions by force. To the contrary, during his years working with Netanyahu, he earned the reputation of being the responsible adult in the Prime Minister’s Office and was seen as having a close strategic relationship with his American counterpart, Tom Donilon. In short, he was perceived as one of the people in the prime minister’s inner circle capable of convincing the government to show some restraint.

“I think we need to seriously consider a preemptive strike in Lebanon,” Amidror told Al-Monitor. “We made two fatal strategic errors in the past in our dealings with Hezbollah. One more mistake will leave us regretting it for generations to come. We must not let Hezbollah cross that red line.”