For almost four years, Ankara’s supreme priority in northern Syria has been to erode, if not totally eliminate, the military capacity of Kurdish militias it considers to be terrorists or terrorist-linked — specifically the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey says is the PKK's Syrian offshoot.
The only barrier for Turkey appeared to be Washington, which has worked with the YPG in the fight against the Islamic State (IS). But now President Donald Trump has said he will withdraw US troops from northeast Syria. His Dec. 19 announcement not only surprised but also perplexed Ankara. A US exit could give Turkey the chance to grab a bigger piece of the northeast Syria pie — but many in Ankara are fully aware of the need for caution and prudence, because those who bite off more than they can chew can easily choke.
Trump's Twitter-based announcement is a novel contribution to the literature on exit strategy, and I don't know if military planners in Ankara are happy with this low-cost, low-risk approach. Now that Trump’s decision to withdraw has completely changed the operational picture on the ground, will they act on their wishes, or adopt a more realistic approach and act according to their actual capacity?
It's still not possible to explain what the full exit plan might be, if there even is one at this point. Also, nobody knows whether US Air Force elements currently controlling airspace over northeast Syria are withdrawing along with the ground elements, which would allow the Turkish air force to provide close air support for Ankara's anticipated military operation.
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