After two years in Syria, what’s next for Russia?
Russia and the United States are curious about each other's long-term goals in Syria, and each believes the other has something up its sleeve.
Two years have passed since Russia began its military campaign in Syria. The Russian military has reached this milestone as victors, with reports of liberating almost 90% of the country’s territory from Islamic State (IS) militants. Average Russians do not care much that this accomplishment was achieved through the joint effort of many countries. What they do care about is feeling assured that a final victory is not far off. However, military reports and statements by diplomats imply that the main battle for Syria's future is still to come.
The Russian Defense Ministry regularly reports on operations in Syria, but after Moscow decided in March 2016 to withdraw most of its main forces, access to the figures became rare. Now, as Moscow assesses its time in Syria, the ministry's official publication, Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper, has published some statistics.
By Sept. 20, according to the report, the Russian air force had flown 30,660 sorties (5,165 in 2015, 13,848 in 2016, and 11,647 over the past months of 2017), launched 92,006 airstrikes and hit roughly 97,000 targets, including 8,330 command points, 53,700 groups of militants, 212 oil fields and 84 oil refineries and oil depots.
Precise figures for Russia's military operational costs in Syria are not available. According to the Russian government news agency Tass, from Sept. 30, 2015, to March 15, 2016, when Russia announced it would reduce its presence in Syria, the war had cost Moscow an average of $2.8 million per day (using an exchange rate of 70 rubles per dollar). Estimates from Russia’s RBK daily business newspaper differ, at $2.5 million daily.
