Will Egypt play a role in Iraqi settlement?
The visit of Ammar al-Hakim, the head of the ruling Shiite Iraqi National Alliance, to Egypt could be an opportunity for Cairo to assume a mediator role to reach a political settlement and active role in the post-IS era in Iraq.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Ammar al-Hakim, the head of the ruling Shiite Iraqi National Alliance, in Egypt on April 18. Sisi said, “Egypt believes that it is important to overcome differences between the various political blocs and to thwart attempts to ignite strife and sectarian split in Iraq.” A presidential statement issued following the meeting in Cairo stated that Sisi stressed “the need that all religious communities in Iraq join forces to bring about national reconciliation that would help promote the unity of the national fabric.”
Hakim had launched in late 2016 a political settlement designed “to address sectarian and racist policies against Iraqi Shiites, Kurds, Sunnis and other minorities.” This UN-sponsored settlement involves all political actors in Iraq, except for the Baath Party and Islamic State (IS) in “the development of a framework for the political process in the post-IS era.”
There are three challenges that Iraq needs to overcome: seizing all IS-held areas, achieving unity among Iraq’s religious components (Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds) and preventing any component from monopolizing power.
Sectarianism and rivalry between a Shiite majority and Sunni minority have been at the core of the political conflict in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime following the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. Although 60% of IS-held areas have been restored, there is a need that military operations and political reforms be concurrent, to prevent extremism from finding a favorable environment in Iraq. The Carnegie Middle East Center wrote in April 2014, “Sunnis feel increasingly marginalized and are radicalizing, providing extremist groups with an ideal environment for mobilization and action.”
