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What would fall of Aleppo mean for US Syria policy?

If the Syrian regime’s campaign to retake eastern Aleppo succeeds, it could have a profound impact on the incoming US administration’s Syria plans.

Syrians walk over rubble of damaged buildings, while carrying their belongings, as they flee clashes between government forces and rebels in Tariq al-Bab and al-Sakhour neighborhoods of eastern Aleppo towards other rebel held besieged areas of Aleppo, Syria November 28, 2016. REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail - RTSTOFV
Syrians walk over rubble of damaged buildings while carrying their belongings as they flee clashes between government forces and rebels in Tariq al-Bab and al-Sakhour neighborhoods of eastern Aleppo toward other rebel-held besieged areas of Aleppo, Nov. 28, 2016. — REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail

WASHINGTON — The prospective fall of rebel-held eastern Aleppo to the Syrian regime and its allies could bolster President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Trump has already expressed openness to work with Russia to fight the Islamic State (IS) and disinclination to support Syrian rebel groups seeking the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But the incoming US administration may soon find that it needs vetted Syrian rebels for a task Trump has consistently prioritized in his campaign: combating IS and seizing and holding IS-held territory in eastern Syria, and preventing it from returning.

With the Syrian regime and its allies making rapid gains in their push to retake rebel-held eastern Aleppo in recent days, Russian officials say they hope that the situation in the ancient city, once Syria’s commercial hub, will be resolved by the time Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.

"The Russians want to complete the operation before Trump takes power," a senior official in the pro-Assad military alliance told Reuters on Nov. 29.

"We are hoping for this, of course," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told Russian media Nov. 30 when asked if Aleppo would be resolved by the end of the year. "We need to force these terrorists out in the same way as they need to be forced out in Mosul and in Raqqa. It's a general task."

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