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Rouhani’s bet on nuke deal may cost him at the polls

One year out from their country's next presidential election, Iranians are wondering whether incumbent Hassan Rouhani will pay a price for striking a nuclear deal with the United States — and whether the US presidential battle will play a role.

EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on leaving the office to report, film or take pictures in Tehran. 
Iranian students hold up their hands as a sign of unity as they form a human chain around the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) to show their support for Iran's nuclear program in Isfahan, 450 km (280 miles) south of Tehran November 15, 2011. REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl (IRAN - Tags: POLITICS ENERGY EDUCATION) - RTR2U1ID
Iranian students hold up their hands as a sign of unity as they form a human chain around the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) to show their support for Iran's nuclear program in Esfahan, 450 kilometers (280 miles) south of Tehran, Nov. 15, 2011. — REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl

Halfway between the signing of the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and their country’s next presidential election, Iranians are waiting to see how the former will influence the latter — and whether the US presidential election will affect the deal.

President Hassan Rouhani may very well end up facing his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in next summer’s vote. Indeed, the conservative former president appears eager to return to the presidential residence on Tehran’s Pastor Street — and he’s fighting for it by using the outcome of the nuclear deal as a weapon.

“Rouhani might become the first [Iranian] president not to secure a second term,” a prominent Iranian moderate-conservative figure told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Many of those in my camp prefer that he gets a second term. Yet, the other candidate is exploiting the setbacks of the nuclear deal to present himself as the only savior to the people.”

The source added, “If the situation continues this way, the entire country will have to face a serious challenge that not many in the upper echelons will prefer seeing.”

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