Why recent steps with Israel, Russia won't really change Turkish foreign policy

According to some Turkish and international observers, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making a U-turn from his confrontational foreign policy these days, moving to a more moderate one. The argument is based on two developments in June. The first is the agreement Turkey reached with Israel after protracted secret negotiations to restore bilateral ties, which had been in a state of a near cold war since the Mavi Marmara crisis in 2010. The second development is the letter Erdogan sent to Russian President Vladimir Putin apologizing for the November shooting down of a Russian fighter jet, which had allegedly violated Turkish airspace along the Syrian border.

Meanwhile, Erdogan is also making overtures toward Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's administration in Egypt, which he had declared "illegitimate" after Sisi's overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government in July 2013, but these efforts have yet to bear fruit.

Erdogan's solutions with Israel and Russia are called "normalization" in the media. Hence, some argue Turkish foreign policy is changing, too, based on the assumption that ties with Israel and Russia have been normalized. But how much do the terms "normalization" and "change" correspond to the actual state of affairs? To make a reality check, let's use the two questions below and see whether one could answer them in the affirmative.

• Do Erdogan's steps vis-a-vis Israel and Russia signify a definitive end to his "new foreign policy," which had crystallized in 2009 with Ahmet Davutoglu's appointment as foreign minister?