From one edge of the abyss to another, warring rivals in Syria continue to swap roles. On March 27, Palmyra was recaptured from the Islamic State (IS) by the Syrian army, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement. After IS had held the city for almost 10 months, forces loyal to the Syrian government entered the city under aerial cover from Russian fighter jets, which launched 41 sorties in four days, killing scores of IS fighters.
After this victory, pro-regime jubilation reflected a sense of total triumph. Expectations were so high that media outlets close to this bloc suggested Deir ez-Zor would be the next city on the liberation list. The anti-IS forces are taking advantage of the truce between the regime and rebels that took effect Feb. 26, which has helped to keep all fronts relatively calm except those with IS and Jabhat al-Nusra.
The Palmyra military advancement, along with political talks, would have been the ideal scenario for the regime were it not for the April 2 attack on Tel al-Ais. Jabhat al-Nusra recaptured the strategic city, leaving scores of Syrian army soldiers and Hezbollah fighters dead. This was followed days later by the downing of a Syrian fighter jet in the same area. The aircraft’s pilot was captured. On April 12, Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah fighters attempted once again to seize Tel al-Ais, but their attack was repelled. Several fighters from Hezbollah were killed and one was captured, bringing the number of Hezbollah members held as prisoners of war by Jabhat al-Nusra to four.
None of the warring actors in Syria is capable of ending the war — despite all claims to the contrary by various sides. The pro-regime bloc can advance on one front, but that has implications on another front. Moreover, if the Russian air force isn’t providing cover, rival forces on the ground are almost equal in power.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.