Assad's staying power confounds Kerry

John Kerry has just marked his first year as America’s top diplomat. The 70-year-old secretary of state has brought energy and commitment to what he has said is the last job of his long political career. His ability to deliver on President Barack Obama’s August 2011 outsized demand that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “step aside” promises to be a key part of his legacy. One year on, how is he doing?

Not so well. Ambassador Robert Ford — the man whose job it was to mobilize successful political opposition to the regime — is out … but Assad remains. Ford’s hopes for a move to the US Embassy in Egypt — the jewel in any Arabist’s crown — fell victim months ago to Cairo’s adamant opposition to host the “Brotherhood’s emissary.” Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Co. are of no mind to permit entry to Ford, who in their eyes represents an American effort to undo the work of their fathers, foment domestic rebellion and hand the deep state to the despised Muslim Brotherhood.

Ford’s departure leaves Kerry’s Syria policy without a well-known, expert shepherd. As for Assad, Kerry himself acknowledged in a Feb. 5 CNN interview that “it’s fair to say that Assad has improved his position a little bit, yes. But he’s still not winning. This is a stalemate.”

Not winning, however, is still a long, long road from losing. And that is the goal Kerry set for himself when he declared an intention to force the embattled Syrian president to “change his calculation.”