Erdogan’s Biggest Fear: The 'Concerned' Islamists

On Aug. 14, following the release of a harsh statement against the Egyptian interim government from the office of the Turkish Prime Ministry, Ivan Watson of CNN tweeted: “Pot calling kettle black? Turkey's PM Erdogan condemns Egyptian security forces for using "force against peaceful protests." 

But the prompt reply to Watson’s tweet came from Ismail Cesur, one of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s advisors: “Sorry Ivan we do not consider vandals and provocateurs as 'peaceful protesters.' Try to watch objectively and see the difference.”

The resentment towards Gezi protests or any domestic dissent is piping hot among the Turkish policy elite. Erdogan’s view of the Gezi protests oscillates between treachery and vandalism. Many pundits agree that the AK Party will dominate the next elections, so why is Erdogan still so scared of domestic protests?

A reasonable answer for Erdogan’s fear is the growth of a robust opposition. A possible panacea for this fear would be to suborn some segments of the opposition and reach a compromise to guarantee re-election. However, a sound analysis of Erdogan’s speeches indicates that Erdogan does not take the opposition’s wishes seriously. He is not worried about getting their votes. Erdogan’s biggest fear is the disapproval of the “Islamist” sections of Turkey (we can refer to them as “concerned” Islamists). In the last decade, with some help from the AK Party, the number of pious Muslims has increased. The younger voters are more sensitive to Islamic values. The AK Party has opened the public space to several religious groups which have agreed not to be involved in politics.