Egypt Question Takes Priority in Arab Politics
Egypt is taking the place of Syria on the front burner of regional politics as the world waits to see how the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies will react to the president's ouster.
The ousting of President Mohammed Morsi has produced intense domestic and external dynamics capable of producing different possible scenarios. Some are talking about the reshuffling of the cards at the regional level because of the centrality of Egypt in the Arab world and the Middle East. Until the dust settles, one could say the Egyptian question is taking the place of the Syrian one on the front burner of regional politics. Some consider that what the army conducted was a soft coup d'état. Others, still standing by a narrow definition of democracy, consider it a typical coup d'état. Yet others have started to move away from that position and adopt a more nuanced one, linking their changing position to how fast and successful the civilian-led democratic transition will be.
Nevertheless, the Morsi regime failed to score well on the democratic register. The shaping of a custom-made Muslim Brotherhood regime from day one, the conduct of the affairs of the state and the dealing with minorities and opposition, as well as the exclusive approach, to power are all examples of this failure. The most important example remains the huge mass rallies against the regime and Morsi’s refusal to take into consideration this new reality. The total absence of a badly needed developmental socio-economic strategy in Egypt is another example of this failure.
So is the foreign policy of the swinging pendulum reflecting a very amateurish reactive policy: the shift from a policy of muscle flexing against Ethiopia because of the renaissance dam to a policy of acquiescence and bridge building.
The same could be said about Syria: a shift from a policy based on trying to find a regional solution to the crisis via the creation of a regional quartet of power to one of organizing an Islamist public rally to announce the severing of relations with Damascus and indirectly encouraging the fighting against the regime in Syria. This policy led to the marginalization of Egypt and to it becoming a source of instability and unpredictability and thus of concern and tension for many in the Arab regional system. This explains why the latter, led mainly by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, has reacted to the change by voicing its strong support.
