Chances for Nuclear Deal Rise With Rouhani
The victory by moderate cleric and experienced negotiator Hassan Rouhani revives chances for progress in nuclear negotiations provided the United States is also willing to compromise.
The decisive election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s next president is a message to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the majority of Iranians reject Khamenei's policy of "resistance" and confrontation with the outside world.The Supreme Leader, who told the United States on Friday to “go to hell” for disparaging Iran’s qualified democracy, is now confronted with a new chief executive best known for compromise in nuclear negotiations.
Iran’s relations with the West improved significantly during the 16 years that the multilingual Rouhani was secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security. While Rouhani led talks with the Europeans from 2003 to 2005, Iran suspended elements of its nuclear program. It was only after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president that Iran aggressively accelerated uranium enrichment. As a result, the UN Security Council voted six times to condemn Iran, and the United States and its European allies have imposed draconian sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and oil exports.
It is too soon to say whether the election results — which gave Rouhani 18.6 million of the 37 million votes cast — will cause a swift change in Iranian policy or negotiating strategy. However, the poor showing for more conservative candidates — particularly current chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who came in third — is too strong a signal for Iran’s leader to ignore.
By entering the race, Jalili insured that the nuclear issue — which is normally taboo for public debate in Iran — would be discussed during the brief campaign. In a final televised debate a week before the elections, the other candidates harshly criticized Jalili’s stewardship of talks with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1).
