Israel Tries to Game Rouhani

At this point, no one can tell what will happen in Iran in the medium and long term following the election of Hassan Rouhani to the presidency. More is hidden than revealed. The situation is shrouded in mystery, and for any scholarly theory or well-reasoned scenario presented, totally opposite options, no less logically argued, may be suggested. Life and politics have a vitality of their own, as aptly demonstrated in the Middle East over the past two years. 

Rouhani is no reformist. Anyone familiar with the ins and outs of Iranian politics knows it. He is a close associate of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and served as his representative in the National Security Council for 16 consecutive years. In fact, Rouhani is the creation of the ayatollah's regime, its own flesh and blood. At the same time, he is soft-spoken and low-key. His worldview coincides in certain areas with that of the reformists. And he may thus be most accurately characterized as a "former conservative” who has not yet decided which path to follow. Once he makes up his mind, he may find out that it is not going to be a pleasant afternoon stroll. He is currently at a historic crossroads and he must choose his way.

There is one clear conclusion to be drawn from the surprising outcome of the election in Iran: The Western intelligence agencies are still incapable of anticipating moods, trends and undercurrents in other nations. Even the Israeli Mossad and the awesome Intelligence Corps of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), including its massive surveillance unit, have been caught off guard in the wake of the Iranian election, notwithstanding the billions invested in recent years in monitoring the goings-on in Iran.

Over the last decade, at least, Mossad chiefs have been consistently explaining to those at the helm of the government that the Iranian people are fed up with its leadership, that the young people in Iran — who make up the majority of the population — loathe the ayatollah's regime, that Khamenei is standing on shaky ground. In practice, however, it turned out to be quite a different story. Faced with the general election, which featured five conservative candidates pitted against one marked as a reformist, no expert — either in Israel or the West — was perceptive enough to come up with the simple observation: Hey, pals — keep an eye on one by the name of Hassan Rouhani. If I am reading the map and the social networks correctly, this guy is going to beat the conservatives walking. The Iranian public is pinning its hopes on him. He is most likely to attract a major part of the electorate.