Elections Unlikely to Change Israel’s Iran Strategy
The results of the recent Israeli elections are unlikely to bring much change to Israel’s Iran strategy, writes Meir Javedanfar.
The results of the recent Israeli elections are unlikely to bring much change to Israel’s current Iran strategy.
That's first and foremost because of the Iranian regime's behavior. As long as Iran refuses to answer the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s questions about suspected weapon-building activity (including alleged activities related to building a nuclear trigger), nobody in Israel will believe the narrative that Iran only wants energy for peaceful purposes. On top of that, Iran hid Fordo from the IAEA before opening it, which former IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei said was “on the wrong side of the law." Although Israelis differ on the importance of Iranian nuclear threat and the optimal strategy for addressing it, Israelis are unanimous in not wanting the Iranian regime to have nuclear weapons.
The surprise gains by centrist-secular party Yesh Atid aren't likely to change matters much. The emerging centrist flank in Israeli politics is largely focused on domestic issues, such as equality in Israel’s draft laws and reform of its education system. When it comes to foreign policy, Yesh Atid's most immediate concern is the Palestinian issue. In terms of Iran, according to Yesh Atid's Knesset member Yaacov Peri (who is also a former head of Shin Bet), “Israel should not take the lead, but the Western world should leave the military option as an option, because we may use it. I hope it will not happen." This differs from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opinion that Israel should take the lead.
However, the difference of opinion between Yesh Atid and Netanyahu is unlikely to have much impact on Netanyahu’s Iran policy. It's unlikely that Yesh Atid will want to expend its political capital on a fight with Netanyahu over Iran. It wants to focus on far bigger, vote-winning issues — such as the draft law — and other domestic matters. It will want to save its ammunition for these, not Iran — which only 12% of Israelis considered urgent in a pre-election poll.
