Why the Next Round of Iran Nuclear Talks Could Yield Results
Recent nuclear negotiations in Moscow between Iran and major world powers yielded little more than a follow-on meeting at the level of experts. Ali Vaez writes that the prospects of reaching a limited negotiated solution at the next round of meetings in Istanbul this week may not be as bleak as they appear.
The latest round of nuclear negotiations in Moscow between Iran and major world powers yielded little more than a follow-on meeting at the level of experts. Interpretations of the outcome vary. For the hawks in Tehran and Washington, downgrading the level of talks was further proof of the futility of nuclear diplomacy. For the doves, it was another missed opportunity with ominous repercussions. Given the mismatched expectations and, at times, misguided perceptions on both sides, a breakthrough in Moscow was never really likely. Still, the prospects of reaching a limited negotiated solution may not be as bleak as they appear.
A quick review of the negotiating process between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany – the P5+1 – is instructive. This new round of nuclear diplomacy was forged in the old crucible of misapprehensions between Iran and the West. Going into the talks, both sides were persuaded that they had the upper hand. In mirror image, each party saw the other’s renewed interest in diplomacy as a sign of weakness and an attempt to avert further escalation in volatile times.
The first meeting in Istanbul focused on generalities. The next round, in Baghdad, saw the two sides formally exchange proposals – comprised mainly of opening salvos based on maximalist demands. The P5+1 put forward a three-pronged request: that Iran halt all 20 percent uranium enrichment; ship its 20 percent stockpile out of the country; and shut down bunker enrichment facility in Fordow. In return it is said to have committed not to impose new sanctions as well as offered to ease Iran’s access to aircraft spare parts, provide fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor and extend cooperation on nuclear safety. Iran judged the P5+1’s proposal “outdated, not comprehensive, and unbalanced,” and instead demanded an explicit recognition of its rights to peaceful nuclear energy under the NPT. Reportedly, the Iranian negotiators also presented a “comprehensive” five-point package covering nuclear and non-nuclear-related matters. Iran’s offer reportedly included, inter alia, increasing cooperation with the IAEA, capping enrichment to 5 per cent, participation in an international consortium for nuclear activities and cooperation on regional security issues such as the situations in Syria and Bahrain.
It was during the third meeting in Moscow that for the first time the negotiating parties engaged in substantive discussions over their proposed packages. No agreement was reached, but in retrospect the diplomatic march has followed a logical path: gradually moving from stagnation and no dialogue to a clearer understanding of the other side’s perspectives. Although the two parties remain poles apart, getting rid of chimerical expectations could be an achievement in itself. Tehran now knows that the damaging momentum of sanctions cannot be stifled with a few reversible confidence building measures. Similarly, Washington and Brussels have realized that while sanctions are taking their toll, they are unlikely to force Iran to compromise.
