Memo

Israel-Hamas war poised to inflame Middle East arms race, pressure security partnerships

To:

Al-Monitor Pro members

From:

Samuel Wendel

Senior Market Research Analyst, Al-Monitor

Date:

Oct. 25, 2023

Bottom Line:

Soon after the Gaza war erupted Oct. 7, shipments of American weapons began heading to Israel. They won’t be the last, regardless of how far the fighting spreads. As the Middle East descends into a new phase of conflict and confrontation, regional states look poised to significantly boost military spending and procurement as the threat landscape grows more complicated and mounting popular unrest heightens unease among ruling regimes.

Turkey already is: On Oct. 17, Ankara revealed its 2024 military budget would reach $40 billion, up 150% over 2023. Alongside potentially accelerating an arms race and raising risks of nuclear proliferation, this moment of rising instability will have significant implications for the United States and its future as the primary regional security guarantor and top arms supplier for key Middle East states.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.