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Why Iran isn't concerned over US plans for 'Arab NATO'

Contrary to what some may have expected, Iran does not appear concerned about US efforts to set up an "Arab NATO" — and for good reasons.
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The United States is stepping up its efforts to curb Iran’s regional reach and influence, premised on the belief that Tehran has never been so powerful in the Middle East. But Iran’s powerful hand is not merely a reflection of its successful strategic conduct. It has also come about as a result of its rivals’ miscalculated regional policies. Saudi Arabia’s catastrophic military and political campaigns in Syria, Yemen, Qatar and Lebanon, for instance, demolished much of Riyadh’s traditional influence while elevating Iran’s positions. Such policies were encouraged by the US “leading from behind” policy, which induced more agency among some Arab states accustomed to the American security umbrella. The failure of the Arab campaigns strengthened the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” on an unprecedented scale. Having been targeted indirectly by the “leading from behind” policy, Iran is now faced with a more organized US effort to establish a regional setting — an "Arab NATO," the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) — that is supposed to “push back” against Iran.

President Donald Trump has been signaling different, sometimes contradictory, messages since taking office. His anti-Iran rhetoric and policy on the one hand amid his parallel call for an unconditional meeting with Iranian leaders on the other seem contradictory. Yet as the summit between the leaders of the United States and North Korea in Singapore suggests, these contradictions may, in fact, be two sides of the same coin. It is for this reason that Iran hawks in Washington and in the Middle East are nervous about Trump’s offer of unconditional dialogue. But Iran hawks should nonetheless be thrilled given the recent talk of the US creation of MESA out of eight Sunni Arab nations — in line with the Trump administration’s anti-Iran campaign. The obvious goal is to counter Iran. At least from Tehran’s view, this is at odds with the US president’s offer of unconditional dialogue. Whether Trump’s messages are in harmony or not, the Islamic Republic cannot afford to negotiate with a threatening party. In fact, no one in Tehran can enter such dialogue.

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