Hard to Foresee Positive Result In Murky Egyptian Election

Ammar Ali Hasan presents ten possible scenarios for Egypt’s upcoming presidential elections. The most optimistic, and also the least likely, involves a responsible and unified civilian front against the SCAF to ensure that a real election takes place. Some are gambling with the country's future, Hasan writes, and calling for martial law.

al-monitor Head of Egypt's ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi (L) stands with Egyptian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Anan after laying a wreath during their visit to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on the anniversary of Egypt's armed forces Martyr's day, in Cairo March 8, 2012. Photo by REUTERS/Middle East News Agency.

Topics covered

scaf, protests in egypt, protests, martial law, hosni mubarak, egyptian presidential election, egyptian constitution

Apr 25, 2012

Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) refused to investigate the legality of the Disenfranchisement Law passed by parliament. The court said it had no authority to look into the law and returned the case to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). The court, however, did agree to consider a lawsuit regarding the invalidation of the law upon which the legislative elections were held. Observers are still perplexed by Field Marshal Mohammad Hussein Tantawi linking the presidential elections to the completion of the new constitution, whose drafting does not seem to be progressing in light of the continued differences between our country’s senior politicians.

For the foreseeable future, this muddled situation presents several scenarios that may result from the overlapping internal, regional and international factors:

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