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The Takeaway: November 27, 2019

Highlights: Iraq protests sharpen clash between Khamenei and Sistani; Iran’s cultural guardians scramble over porn documentary; Pakistan’s defense diplomacy picks up with Tehran; and the Iraqi tuk-tuk as our cool thing.
Iraqi demonstrators are seen near Iraqi security forces during ongoing anti-government protests, in Baghdad, Iraq November 25, 2019. REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily - RC2GID9PZRKP
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Three quick takes:
 
 

1. Shut down protests, no matter what it takes, Khamenei urges Iraqis; Sistani demurs

 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has directed Iraqi leaders to shut down Iraq’s protests, even if that means more violence. But Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most influential cleric, is not backing down in his support for the protesters.

 

Khamenei: Iran not giving up Iraq.

On Nov. 21, Khamenei met in Tehran with Iraqi officials including Falih al-Fayadh, head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU); Hadi al-Amiri, head of the pro-Iran Badr Organization; and Mohammad Hashimi, head of the prime minister's office.

 

A source who attended the meeting told Al-Monitor that Khamenei’s message was clear and direct: Iran is not going to give up Iraq without a fight, and it’s time to shut down the protests.

 

 

Iraqi government digs in.

 

Ali Mamouri writes this week, “It is clear the Iraqi government is not willing to undertake any serious reforms to satisfy the protesters' demands. Instead, it is working on alternative plans to end the protests with minimum reforms.”

 
 

More than 400 protesters have been killed and thousands wounded since demonstrations began last month. The protests have been driven by the youth, but have included a wide and inclusive cross section of Iraqi society, calling for a dramatic program of reform and change.

 

Mamouri lays out the Iraqi government’s emerging three-part approach, which tracks with Khamenei’s wishes: escalation of violence in support of “security”; propaganda against the protesters by describing them as inspired by foreign enemies; and attacks on and abduction of protesters by unidentified forces.

 

 

 

Dueling Ayatollahs.

 

Sistani and Khamenei have a kind of rivalry for leadership among Shiites in Iran and Iraq, as Mamouri wrote here. But in Iraq, there is really no contest — Sistani holds sway. And Sistani is not giving in to Khamenei; the Iraqi cleric is backing the protesters.

 

At Friday prayer last week, Sheikh Abdul Mahdi al-Karbalai, a representative of Sistani, said, “Bloodshed will overthrow any political system and will lead to the replacement of the government with a completely new one” — meaning if the Iraqi government keeps up the bloodshed, it could end up sealing its own demise.

 

Our take: Khamenei’s sense of urgency about Iraq is linked to the widespread protests in Iran, which broke out Nov. 15 in response to an increase in fuel prices. Since then, 140 people have reportedly been killed, with nearly 2,000 injured and thousands arrested. In Iraq, Sistani’s support for the protests may not be enough. As we wrote here last week, Iraq needs a bridge between protesters and reform-minded politicians to avoid further tragedy.

 

Read more: Check out Ali Mamouri’s must read report here on Iran's role in Iraq, and our essay on "the beginning of the end of the post-Saddam era."

 
 
 
 
 
 

2. Porn documentary exposes contradictions of Iranian cultural guardians

 

Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has banned public viewings of “XSunami,” an Iranian documentary about an American porn star and the perils of Western sexual promiscuity and decadence — and in the process exposed the contradictions and confusion of Iran’s cultural gatekeepers.

 

Private screenings only. “XSunami” seemed to have the backing of Hozeh Honari, one of the largest cultural institutions in the country, with more than 100 cinemas under its control. Hozeh Honari is an arm of the Islamic Propaganda Organization, which while culturally “hard line” nonetheless has a confrontational relationship with the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance and often is at loggerheads with the government. The film was screened for private audiences in Tehran, Esfahan and even Mashhad, the second-largest and one of the most conservative cities in Tehran, known for banning concerts.

 

Our take: This struggle for influence between the ministry and Hozeh Honari shows the government’s detachment from the vibrancy of Iran’s film community, which is widely praised internationally. At home, those same directors and leaders are regularly badgered by Iran’s cultural stewards.

 

Read more: Rohollah Faghihi has the take here and here on the background of “XSunami,” the tensions between Hozeh Honari and the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, and the controversy over another film, the award-winning “Cold Sweat,” about a woman’s struggle to play indoor soccer, which also earned the scorn of Iranian hard-liners.

 
 
 

3. Pakistan’s Imran Khan continues to recalibrate policies in region

 

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has stepped up the turnaround in his Persian Gulf policies. Until Khan assumed office in August 2018, Pakistan was clearly in the Saudi camp, and relations with Iran were poor at best, despite professed neutrality on “regional conflicts.”

 

Now Khan is making neutrality a reality, and positioning himself as a key intermediary between Riyadh and Tehran, with the blessings of US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as we have been tracking here.

 

Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, led a high-level military delegation to Iran this month to advance military and security cooperation — and also to further mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The agenda included discussions of:

 
  • Border issues and counterterrorism, especially regarding the Taliban and the Islamic State;
  • A joint Pakistan-Iran security mechanism;
  • Completion of a gas pipeline on the Iran-Pakistan border.
 

Our take: Khan’s mediation may be helpful, if not decisive, in regional diplomacy. We have also been following the slight thaw in Iran’s ties with the United Arab Emirates, including a speech this month by UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash calling for “dynamic diplomacy” to head off conflict in the Gulf.

 

Read more: Check out the latest here by Sabena Siddiqui on Khan’s regional and defense diplomacy.

 
 
 
One cool thing:
 
 
 
 

Tuk-tuks to the rescue in Iraq

 

The tuk-tuk, a kind of barely motorized rickshaw for those who couldn’t afford a car, had a mostly undistinguished reputation — a sign and symbol of Iraq’s working poor.

 

But the tuk-tuk has gotten a radical reset. Its drivers have hurried to the front lines of the protests, and their vehicles played a vital role for transportation and as ambulances. Check out the article here by Adnan Abu Zeed.

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