Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a ritual. Whenever he gets the results of a new poll, he jots down the number of seats by party and then divvies them up into two blocs: left and right. It used to be easy. The Likud would be listed in the right-wing bloc, along with other smaller right-wing parties, the ultra-Orthodox and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. On a good day, that bloc would be worth around 70 seats, ensuring that Netanyahu retains power. Then Liberman reshuffled the deck.
In what has become the big drama of the current election, Liberman pulled out of the two main blocs and is playing on both sides instead. All that seems to matter to him is that the ultra-Orthodox are kept out of the equation. The polls show that without him, Netanyahu will not be able to form a right-wing government with the ultra-Orthodox. Compounding the uncertainty is his failure to achieve a merger to the right of the Likud, as became apparent Aug. 1, when the final party lists were submitted.
