As Turkey's consumer confidence plummets, what does that mean for the AKP?

Turkey’s consumer confidence index — a key indicator that is closely correlated with the AKP’s electoral showings — is on the decline, signaling further losses for the party in the Nov. 1 early elections.
A woman sits at a money exchange office in central Istanbul, Turkey, June 8, 2015. The Turkish lira traded near a record lows on Monday as nervous investors reacted to the prospects of a minority or coalition government after the ruling AK Party failed to win a majority in a parliamentary election. The lira, already one of the worst performing emerging market currencies this year, hit a record low in out-of-hours trade on Sunday, after results showed the AKP had taken just short of 41 percent of the vote.
A woman sits at a money exchange office in central Istanbul, June 8, 2015. - REUTERS/Murad Sezer
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Kadri Gürsel
@KadriGursel
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According to a Turkish proverb, “The calculation made at home goes awry at the market.” It basically means the decisions one makes and implements with available knowledge, experience and foresight may not produce the desired results in the face of changing realities on the ground.

The developments in Turkey since the June 7 elections, which saw the Justice and Development Party (AKP) lose its governing majority after 13 years in power, show that the calculation President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made “at home” was to take Turkey to snap elections as soon as possible in a bid to propel the AKP back to power as a single-party government. It seems, however, his calculation may go “awry at the market.”

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