Skip to main content

The impending Shiite leadership crisis Baghdad doesn't see coming

With frequent visits between Tehran and Baghdad, the question arises of whether Iranian politics are seeping into Iraq and what that means for the country's future.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Qassem Soleimani uses a walkie-talkie at the frontline during offensive operations against Islamic State militants in the town of Tal Ksaiba in Salahuddin province March 8, 2015. Picture taken March 8, 2015.   REUTERS/Stringer (IRAQ - Tags: CIVIL UNREST CONFLICT POLITICS) - RTR4TU0N
Read in 

One of the effects of the rise of the Islamic State (IS) has been the emergence of Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, as the foremost military commander in Iraq. This has been particularly evident in the absence of the US military and with the establishment of the Popular Mobilization Units.

However, while his military clout has expanded, Soleimani’s political influence appears to be increasingly checked. Indeed, today, the most powerful Iranian in Iraq is arguably Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. While in the making for years, this trajectory has accelerated following IS’ blitz in northern Iraq last summer. The fall of Mosul and increasing tensions with the Kurdistan Regional Government and Sunni leaders did not singlehandedly end former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s rule. Rather, it was the disapproval of the grand ayatollah. Neither Soleimani’s personal backing nor the highest number of votes for his bloc and for his person could shield Maliki from Najaf.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.