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Lebanon’s economic outlook for 2015

The economic situation in Lebanon does not bode well for the coming year, but hope remains if governing political forces move away from the region's conflicts.
Cranes at construction sites of Solidere, a Lebanese company responsible for the development and reconstruction of Beirut's city center, are seen in downtown Beirut July 10, 2012. Gulf investors, an important source of capital for Lebanon, are pulling out of the country, disillusioned by political instability and disappointing economic policies. Lebanon depends heavily on foreign direct investment to offset its current account deficit, its shortfall in trade of goods and services. Lebanon's economy is belie
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On an economic level, 2014 was not the best year for Lebanon. All indicators of growth and production declined, as the World Bank recorded a 1.5% growth rate for 2014. The treasury deficit is expected to reach 10.2% of the gross domestic product compared to 9.4% in 2013. The situation does not bode well for the coming year, although these challenges are to be expected in a country that is affected by the repercussions of the Syrian war, especially on the security level.

Perhaps the best indicator showing a strong correlation between security and the economy is the Consumer Confidence Index, which is issued in partnership between the Byblos Bank and the American University in Beirut. The Consumer Confidence Index recorded a recovery in the first half of 2014, as a result of the formation of the government in February and a relative improvement in the security situation, after a halt in the series of bombings, which rocked Beirut and Tripoli from March 2013 to January 2014. Thus, the indicator stood at 29 in the second half of 2013 and reached 33.5 in the first half of 2014.

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