The ongoing standoff between the West and Russia has opened a debate about excessive personalization in analyses of Vladimir Putin's actions. In trying to explain Putin's motivations in the Ukraine crisis, US Secretary of State John Kerry was quoted as saying to the Wall Street Journal, “[H]e's creating his own reality, and his own sort of world, divorced from a lot of what's real on the ground for all those people, including people in his own country.” Indeed, there is some truth to that, but certain phenomena go beyond the psyche of the Russian ruler and are better explained by “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” George Kennan's 1947 classic for Foreign Affairs. In his article, Kennan presents the shrewd analysis behind the US policy of containment toward the Soviet Union in the postwar era. Although Russian state and society have evolved significantly since that time, the essay is surprisingly topical today in providing important clues about Russian foreign policy patterns in various regions, including the Middle East.
The first pattern is rooted in the history of the Russian presence in the region, which peaked during the Soviet era. The Soviet Union had its own vision of the balance of power in the Middle East and was an integral piece, either as a part of the problem or part of the solution, of almost every security puzzle that arose, including the Suez crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the 1967 war and so on. Today’s Russia also wants its voice to be heard, not to mention decisively, in most acute regional issues, be it the Iranian nuclear issue or the Syrian crisis. Although President Barack Obama considers Russia a “regional power” — an assertion that upset many Russians, including decision-makers, which is telling — whenever a grave challenge emerges in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world, Washington can expect little progress if it fails to enlist Moscow’s support, as recently concerning Afghanistan and Iran.