ALEPPO, Syria — Predictably, as soon as the battle for the strategic Qalamoun area in the mountainous regions between Syria and Lebanon drew to a close — with the regime gaining the upper hand — fresh fronts opened in this seemingly endless civil war. Their location, however, was quite unexpected. Most Syria observers and analysts expected to see the next big battle in southern Daraa province, the birthplace of the Syrian uprising and a stronghold of mainstream rebels backed by the West and regional powers. Crucially, this area is devoid of the radical Islamist groups that have dominated other parts of the war-torn country.
The shock came when a new front opened in Kassab in rural Latakia province, a stronghold of the Syrian regime largely composed of Alawites. Kassab itself was a predominantly Armenian resort town, and fear spread that the extremist Islamist factions that stormed the town might perpetrate genocide against the inhabitants. This fear was not entirely unfounded, as such violence would have been a repeat of the war crimes perpetrated the last time rebels launched an offensive into rural Latakia in August 2013, according to Human Rights Watch.