There is much current speculation about Egyptian emir of al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahri's influence over the global jihadist movement and its future. He is often portrayed as increasingly out of touch and irrelevant. Of course, we don’t really even know where he is, so all this speculation is just that. What are the known facts about his behavior and activity?
For months, Zawahri has been trying to persuade al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), to cease operating in Syria and leave al-Qaeda activity there to a group created by ISIS in 2012, Jabhat al-Nusra. That group’s leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (a nom de guerre) has pledged loyalty to Zawahri. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (another pseudonym) refused to follow Zawahri’s instructions, and ISIS has taken control of significant parts of eastern Syria and western Iraq. Al-Qaeda then renounced ISIS and effectively banished it from its global jihadist enterprise. Some have seen this as a sign of Zawahri’s loss of control, and his influence is said to be diminishing. Others have suggested he is desperate to gain the spotlight that has passed to Golani, Baghdadi, the Algerian Mokhtar Belmokhtar and others operating in the chaos of the Arab Spring’s wake and garnering much attention. Others suggest he is desperately struggling to survive in Pakistan, where he is all but alone.