Regardless of any new developments that may occur in the next few hours, it remains probable that the process of forming a new Lebanese cabinet will revert back to the starting point from which it began nearly 10 months ago. In fact, it might even go further back as a result of the intransigent and seemingly uncompromising positions expressed by both parties to the dispute: Beirut member of parliament and Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam versus the largest Christian bloc in parliament, represented by Gen. Michel Aoun. While the former insists on imposing portfolios and the names of ministers on all parties wishing to participate in his coalition government, Aoun considers that such behavior falls contrary to the traditionally required consensual lineup and is an exclusion of Christian representation.
The parliamentary faction to which Salam belongs, namely former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s bloc, lacks the parliamentary majority needed to grant the government the constitutionally required vote of confidence. Furthermore, Aoun’s allies have affirmed their solidarity with his stance through their rejection of Salam’s imposition of a cabinet without taking into account the opinions of participants in his coalition government. As a result of these circumstances, Beirut now faces three prospects:
