Lebanon Pulse

Lebanon in crisis from spillover of Syria conflict

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Article Summary
Difficulty accommodating the exorbitant numbers of Syrian refugees pouring into the country, as well as growing sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, highlight Lebanon’s dire situation.

All crises in Beirut seem to be escalating and worse. From the financial aspect, an international company lowered the ratings of three of the most important Lebanese banks on Nov. 8 — news that shook the Lebanese capital. Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh paid visits to prominent officials and warned them that the situation is critical.

In the government, the vacuum — which the country has been experiencing since the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati on March 22 — persists, while a new government is still waiting to be formed. Better yet, it seems that the situation is on the verge of becoming an even greater dilemma amid increasing regional polarization. This has led to a deep rift between the two conflicting Lebanese parties, especially with the nearing presidential elections scheduled for March 25, 2014. People are also afraid of a complete institutional vacuum after the end of the current president’s term on May 25, 2014.

In terms of security, large regions in the north and east of Lebanon are still facing the risk of spillover from the Syrian war. Meanwhile, the Lebanese minister of interior has declared that over 36% of prisoners in Lebanese prisons are Syrians.

All this seemed reasonable and understandable, but two issues — external and internal—are raising the biggest concern regarding the fate of the "land of the cedars."

The first issue is related to displaced Syrians in Lebanon and is no longer linked to the rumored traditional Lebanese “racism” or xenophobia. It is rather a tragedy that is quantifiably demonstrable in numbers. Over 1.2 million displaced Syrians currently live in Lebanon. The most dangerous aspect of this figure is its drastic evolution over time. It is enough to go back to the United Nations records to see that.

In June 2012, the number of registered displaced people reached 25,000. Six months later, in December 2012, the figure had increased sevenfold to 175,000. During the same period in June 2013, the number had tripled to 525,000.

Today, the number has doubled over the same period. However, it has jumped over that intimidating one million mark, and the situation has exploded. Meanwhile, the developments in Syria are definitely headed to another six months of instability — better yet, to intensifed battles on the different military fronts, some of which are adjacent to Lebanon. The number of displaced people can no longer increase. What if that figure of one million doubles?

The figure of displaced people and the news of tragedies go hand in hand. Displaced Syrians have embarked on hundreds of illegal trades in Lebanon to earn their living, which has created tension with Lebanese citizens who run similar businesses. This phenomenon is embodied by separate tensions and repeated security clashes that warn of major risks.

According to reports, 10,000 Syrian children have been born in Lebanon. Yet, they are not legally registered, and they do not have identity cards or even birth records. What is their legal fate? The phenomenon of “crisis prostitution” has become a favorite topic of numerous local and foreign media reports. On Nov. 12, rumors spread that human organ trafficking is happening among the displaced as a way to earn a living in an economically wrecked country that is deprived of serious international refugee aid.

Those issues are currently pressuring our vision of the Lebanese future. Some even wonder, “Will there be a Lebanon in the wake of the Syrian crisis, regardless of its fate or solution?”

The second worrying issue in Lebanon today is the deep and violent sectarian rift between Sunnis and Shiites. The most dangerous aspect of this phenomenon is the fact that it has become widely spread among the youth of both sects and has turned them into enemies or militants fighting until death — death that could come any minute. Both sects constitute almost two-thirds of the country’s citizens who are charged with the harshest and most violent feelings that are taking over an entire age group.

On Nov. 14, the Lebanese University’s main campus near Beirut was the stage of a scene that played out this situation. On the occasion of Ashoura, which is commemorated by the Shiite sect, the campus located near the Shiite southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital turned into a square for Shiite rituals and celebrations. This was enough to stir the feelings of the other students and provoke a dispute that could have easily turned into a bigger problem. A Lebanese journalist commented on the topic on a Lebanese news site, criticizing the event and objecting to this aspect of Shiite culture. Then came a shower of violent replies that filled social media.

On the other hand, Tripoli, the capital of north Lebanon, was the stage of a Nov. 10 Salafist celebration attended by several Sunni members of parliament. The public sectarian rhetoric reached unprecedented limits and broke all boundaries.

It was a clear act of sectarian provocation against other sects of “mystics who are attached to their illusions and conspiracies against Islam. They pretend that they are Islamists, when they are only enemies of Islam and Sunnis.”

The speech was clearly accusing Shiite and Alawite leaders of killing Sunni Muslims in two explosions that occurred in Tripoli on Aug. 23.

“Here is the blood of all martyrs who were killed by the three butchers — the Syrian butcher, the Baal Mihsin butcher [in reference to the leader of the Alawite minority, Refaat Ali Eid, in the Alawite neighborhood in Tripoli] and the Haret Hreik’s butcher [in reference to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah].” The Sunni rhetoric charged with accusations went on: “We know that [Syrian President] Bashar [al-Assad] and his fellows Eid and Nasrallah, the latter of whom is residing in the shelters of the suburbs, want to subjugate us. From Bashar whose hands are stained with blood in Syria to the chief of the murderous gang in Haret Hreik, [Nasrallah].”

Moreover, the speakers sent out messages of intimidation and threatened to use Sunni weapons to confront what they referred to as Shiite weapons. “Let them know that our martyrs are backed by men, weapons and an entire sect [of people],” they said.

Those are just a few samples of the daily media broadcasts. Yet the most dangerous of all is the violent talk posted all over social media. These samples evoke the question: How can we build a united country when there are such spiteful spirits, provided that a country is initially defined as one social pact and a will to coexist?

A solution for the Syrian crisis might be the only hope left for Lebanon to eradicate the crisis of displaced Syrians and defuse the flaring strife that is drenched in violence and refusal for others from Syria all the way to Lebanon.

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Found in: syrian refugees in lebanon, syria, sunni-shiite conflict, sectarian violence, lebanon

Jean Aziz is a columnist at the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, a contributor for Al-Monitor's Lebanon Pulse and the host of a weekly political talk show on OTV, a Lebanese television station. He teaches communications at the American University of Technology and the Université Saint-Esprit De Kaslik in Lebanon. On Twitter: @JeanAziz1

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