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The Rouhani Surprise

The election of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran has defied analysts and created an opportunity for the West.
A supporter of moderate cleric Hassan Rohani celebrates his victory in Iran's presidential election along a street in Tehran June 16, 2013. Rohani won Iran's presidential election on Saturday, the interior ministry said, scoring a surprising landslide victory over conservative hardliners without the need for a second round run-off. REUTERS/Yalda Moayeri (IRAN - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS) - RTX10PBJ

The only thing we learn from Iranian elections, to paraphrase George Bernard Shaw, is that we do not learn from Iranian elections. Despite their careful study of the tea leaves of Iranian domestic politics, neither the pundits nor the policymakers in the West could have imagined, even a day before the June 14 election, that Hassan Rouhani would win the polling. The same kind of monocausal analysis that blindsided the observers of Iran now risks creating misguided expectations about the implications of Rouhani's presidency.

To be fair, predicting the result of the election was no easy feat, and the confluence of factors that led to Rouhani’s upset victory will likely be debated for years to come. For at least four reasons, the deck appeared to be stacked against him.

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