News over the weekend that Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has entered the race for Iranian president produced surprise and elation in some quarters that politics in the Islamic Republic are not completely dead.
But assuming Rafsanjani survives vetting by the system’s clerical-run Guardian Council, his chances for victory against conservatives supported by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should not be overestimated. Any enthusiasm for Rafsanjani’s candidacy should be tempered by his uneven past record as president in domestic and foreign affairs, Iran’s bipolar political system and the difficulty facing any Iranian leader in dealing with the country’s sharp downward trajectory.
