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Russia Still Key to Syrian Transition

Fyodor Lukyanov analyzes Russia's role in a political transition in Syria, including President Assad’s proposal for dialogue with moderate opposition leaders.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (L) shakes hands with U.N.-Arab League peace mediator Lakhdar Brahimi of Algeria, in Moscow December 29, 2012.  REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin  (RUSSIA - Tags: POLITICS)
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Addressing the nation for the first time in over six months, Syrian President Bashar Assad thanked Russia for its efforts to help find a political solution to Syria's conflict. This sounded ironic, because the rest of the speech was devoted to denying the very possibility of negotiating with those who should theoretically be the other party to the negotiations.

In the last days of 2012, Russia was again at the center of attention due to events in Syria. First, Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister, Faysal Maklad, visited Moscow, followed by the special envoy of the UN and the Arab League, Lakhdar Brahimi, but the leader of the Syrian national coalition, Ahmed Muaz al-Hatib, made a point of rejecting the invitation from the Russian Foreign Ministry until Moscow publicly apologizes for supporting the Assad regime. And the news that the amphibious assault ship Novocherkassk had sailed from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to the Syrian port of Tartus caused a wave of rumors, each one louder than the last, to erupt in media outlets sympathetic to the opposition. Rumors that an armada of Russian warships is supposedly heading to Syria, either to protect the “Alawite corridor” or remove Assad's chemical weapons.

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