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Is There More Trouble Ahead for Benjamin Netanyahu?

The Israeli unity government is falling apart over the debate about requiring ultra-Orthodox and some Arab citizens to do military service. Akiva Eldar, a senior analyst at Ha'aretz, writes that the friction might mobilize Palestinian-Israelis to vote in next year's elections, which could be problematic for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem July 8, 2012. Netanyahu gave the green light on Sunday to reforms that would end blanket military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, in an about-face only hours after 20,000 Israelis marched for change. REUTERS/Uriel Sinai/Pool (JERUSALEM - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY)

The next Israeli elections, which will take place no later than late October 2013, will determine whether the right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will keep running the government with hardly any parliamentary opposition, or if his Likud party and its potential right-wing and Orthodox partners will face a center-left bloc which either eliminates or, at least, decreases Netanyahu's political power. It will determine whether the peace process will remain in a deadlock, or will get a fair, if not a last chance.  

Kadima and Labor have great difficulty presenting a charismatic potential leader who can challenge Netanyahu. The prime minister enjoys both the active support of Ehud Barak, as well as the passive support of Barack Obama. Thus, it seems unrealistic to mobilize, in the foreseeable future, a significant segment of Jewish voters from the right-Orthodox bloc to form a center–left coalition.

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