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Each week Al-Monitor provides unmatched original content from the Middle East to uncover the trends as we cover the news.
Here are just five of the trends we have been following this week based on reporting and analysis by our regional contributing writers and correspondents.
Egypt ‘s "deformed" democracy
As we write this, Egypt is again rocked by anti-government demonstrations which has sled to confrontations, violence and casualties.
To understand what is happening in Egypt, Bassem Sabry provided an assessment of the political and economic situation in Egypt two years after the popular demonstrations which led to President Hosni Mubarak being ousted from power.
Sabry’s analysis is, not unexpectedly, dispiriting. One of the reasons for Egypt’s plight is the Muslim Brotherhood's authoritarian bent and agenda. Sabry writes the governing philosophy of Egypt’s new rulers “revealed to be a deformed understanding of democracy, the country’s Islamists — particularly the Muslim Brotherhood — largely see democracy as nothing more than a form of majoritarianism wherein today’s ballot-box majority can pretty much do anything it wants.”
The stacking of Egypt’s constitutional committee with Islamist allies, to the exclusion of secular democrats, and a rushed referendum forced on a defensive and disunited opposition, provoked another crisis, including street demonstrations and violence at the end of 2012. Sabry summarizes the outcome on the new Egyptian Constitution:
“There is regrettably much to disappoint in Egypt’s long-awaited and much anticipated new charter, if we use the progressive narrative that surrounded the Arab Spring as a reference point. The new constitution, while bringing some welcome additions, ostensibly rolls back some religious freedoms, often contradicts its commitment to social and civil rights, retains military trials for civilians, could theoretically allow punishments for crimes not explicitly mentioned in the penal code and worse. For the country’s liberals and progressives, the document has been a true letdown. Still, amending the constitution is officially item number one on the next parliament’s task list.
It would be hard to make a case that Egypt is better off, or its future any brighter, than the glum days of Mubarak. The heady optimism of Tahrir Square is now a melancholy memory. Two years on, Egypt has morphed from the autocratic and stifling rule of an outdated dictator to the assertive and authoritarian agenda of an Islamist party with no record or plan for addressing Egypt’s deep economic and social problems, with the country more violently divided than ever.
"Al-Qaeda 3.0" may be deadliest yet
Bruce Riedel wrote this week wrote that third generation of al-Qaeda, that is since the ‘Arab Awakening’ and the death of Usama Bin Laden, may be the most deadly yet.
Riedel points out that ground zero for al-Qaeda is Syria and that ‘The longer the civil war in Syria goes on, the more al-Qaeda will benefit from the chaos and the sectarian polarization. It will also benefit from the spillover of violence from Syria into Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan that is now inevitable.’
Surveying the increase in al-Qaeda terrorist cells and activities in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Mali, Riedel sums up one of the more unfortunate consequences of the Arab revolutions of the past two years: ‘Al-Qaeda today is stronger at the operational level in the Arab world than it has been in years.’
The transformation of al-Qaeda into a more diverse, more nimble, and just as lethal adversary is another cruel outcome of the Arab awakenings two years ago. The record is what it is: the brittle autocracies of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have been replaced by weaker, potentially failing states (perhaps failed in Libya’s case) with even more space for the rise of Islamic militants and armed groups. The trend is even more alarming in Syria and Iraq, where the jihadist presence is large and growing. This new 3.0 generation is getting their fighting chops in Syria, with lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan, in pursuit of an Islamic state there and to foment trouble throughout the region.
Mali and Libya
The French intervention in Mali and the Algerian rescue operation that led to the deaths of 37 foreign hostages has drawn attention to the rise of armed Islamic groups in the Sahel Region, with implications for Mali and all of North Africa.
Al-Monitor has covered this trend closely over the past year, including Ali Hashem’s piece last week which describes the linkages between Mali and Libya, where the NATO intervention in support of those who brought down the regime of Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011 has produced a failing if not failed state plagued by instability and Islamic armed groups.
Also last week US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified before Congress on the terrorist attack on the US consulate in Benghazi in September 2012 which led to the death of US Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans and also made the link between Libya, Mali, and the rise of terrorists in North Africa.
“Benghazi didn’t happen in a vacuum,” Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations committee. “The Arab revolutions have scrambled power dynamics and shattered security forces across the region. And instability in Mali has created an expanding safe haven for terrorists who look to extend their influence and plot further attacks of the kind we saw just last week in Algeria.”
This is a welcome turn in official US perceptions of the consequences the intervention in Libya. Immediately after the fall of Gadhafi there was much collective praise for Clinton’s leadership in securing the NATO intervention in support of the Benghazi rebels. While this is not to say Gadhafi deserved to stay a day longer, the US and its allies should be clear-eyed about military interventions and hoisting the ‘mission accomplished’ banner. There is no such thing as a consequence-free interventions or unambiguous “successes”. The region is more volatile and dangerous than before the uprisings which toppled governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Despite the hope and excitement of the Arab Spring, North Africa is emerging as a haven for armed Islamic groups and failing states.
Qatar brings “schism’ to Gulf
Sultan Al Qassemi wrote this week that Qatar’s support for the new Islamist powers in the Arab world, including and especially the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, has created a schism with Gulf neighbors UAE and Saudi Arabia.
While tensions among the Gulf Cooperation Council states are not unusual, such as over Iran or border demarcation, Al Qassemi points out that this case is unique in that the UAE is now claiming that the Brotherhood, which is backed by Qatar, is undermining its government.
Qatar’s support for Islamist groups has spurred conflict and controversy in Gaza, Egypt, Libya, and especially Syria. The contagion has now spread to the Gulf, where sectarian agitation accentuates social and political tensions in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and even Kuwait. Doha’s intrigues with Islamist groups in an already flammable context bears watching.
Israel’s elections
The elections in Israeli produced two surprises: a drop in support for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud/Beintenu alliance, and the emergence of Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid Party coming in second.
Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse covered the elections before, during, and after the elections, including regional reactions from out Palestine, Lebanon and Turkey Pulses.
