Last weekend witnessed the most important and serious crack in the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey's ruling party, when Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc engaged in a heated public argument with fellow AKP member and Ankara Mayor Melih Gokcek. Only 75 days before the general elections, such a crack cannot bode well for the party’s fortunes. While the AKP’s ultimate power does not appear to be contested by any other contender, the party could lose its majority in the next parliament and the ability it has had since 2002 to form the government by itself.

But such an election would only be possible if the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP) surmounts the high electoral threshold of 10% or the party at the furthest right end of the political spectrum, the Nationalist Action Part (MHP) raises its percentage to about 18%.

The crack in the ruling party could accelerate such possibilities. The most plausible election forecast today is that the AKP will not win another parliamentary majority and thus be obliged to form a coalition government.

The end of the AKP’s one-party rule would be very decisive not only in shaping Turkey’s post-2015 political landscape but also its increasingly volatile neighborhood.