The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and other developments in the Middle East that Turkey failed to foresee are forcing Ankara to realign itself with its traditional Western allies and reappraise its regional policies. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is also now concerned that a prolonged conflict between Sunnis and Shiites is upon us, and he is therefore trying to move to the center, away from overtly sectarian positions.

Ankara is increasingly aware that a new balance of interests is developing in the region whereby Turkey will have to play some kind of an active role if it is to contribute to stabilizing the area and not be further marginalized, as it has been due to its policies in Iraq, Syria and Egypt. Turkish diplomats are not only focusing on the dialogue between Washington and Tehran in this context, but are also aware that circumstances are forcing relations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) beyond the economic sphere and into the domain of security cooperation.

Ankara remains officially opposed to Kurdish claims over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, but appears reconciled to the fact that the city was secured by Kurdish peshmerga against ISIS and is set to remain under Kurdish control for the foreseeable future. It knows that Kirkuk’s Turkmen are unhappy with this and angry with Turkey, as they see it, for deserting them. Sources close to the Erdogan government maintain, however, that given the KRG’s growing dependence on Turkey, Ankara is now in a better position to intervene on their behalf.

The Erdogan government is also trying to “unclog” its lines of communication with Baghdad in view of ISIS's rise, and because of the very real fear that Iraq might split up, has started to reassert the importance it attaches to Iraq’s territorial integrity. Despite the warm ties between Ankara and the KRG, Foreign Ministry sources told Al-Monitor that an independent Kurdistan emerging out of the ashes of Iraq is still undesirable to Turkey.