Turkey’s plan to normalize ties with Armenia, the most critical part of its “zero problems with neighbors” policy, went to the dustbin after Ankara made a surprise U-turn for the sake of Azeri gas. Bilateral relations had been severed in 1994 over the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the Armenian occupation of 20% of Azeri territory.

Following two years of secret talks, Turkey and Armenia signed two protocols aimed at normalizing ties in Zurich on Oct. 10, 2009, attended by the US and Russian foreign ministers. Even though the protocols made no reference to Nagorno-Karabakh, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan put forward a condition that Armenia should take a step toward resolving the conflict. In Armenia, meanwhile, the Constitutional Court approved the protocols with reservations before sending them to parliament for ratification. Turkey protested that the court’s reasoning went “against the spirit of the protocols.” Finally, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisyan announced Armenia was suspending the ratification process on the grounds that Turkey was putting conditions on it.

Three years on, Turkey is seeking to revive the Armenian dossier. The first signal came on Nov. 6 from Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. In a briefing to parliament’s Foreign Affairs Commission, he said, “Our efforts ahead of 2015 are continuing at full speed. Our demand is that [the Armenians] pull out from Karabakh. We are expecting a move on this issue. If it happens, both the border crossing and the railroad will be reopened and other relations will follow. But we want to do this together with Azerbaijan,”

Turkish Foreign Ministry sources told Al-Monitor that the “second Armenian opening” was discussed with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev when he visited Ankara on Nov. 12 and was decorated with a state medal, as well as during Davutoglu’s visit to Washington Nov. 18-19 and Erdogan’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg Nov. 22.