In a press statement after the negotiations in Vienna, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov chose his words carefully: “I’d be remiss not to mention the broader context of what happened. The solutions will, first, play an important role in strengthening the nonproliferation regime. Second, they will, of course, have a healing effect on the overall situation in the Middle East, North Africa and the Persian Gulf. Third, once this agreement is implemented, it will be possible to tackle other issues in that region.” Clearly, the message was meant to emphasize key takeaways from the deal with Iran. However, real challenges and opportunities for the Russian state stretch far beyond those sugarcoated in diplomatic courtesy. Moreover, the deal is not the culmination but rather the beginning of some serious, complicated multi-level work for Moscow in its relationship with Tehran.

In what seemed for years to be a nuclear deadlock, Moscow was believed to be less disturbed than most about the prospects of Iran getting the bomb. Some even opined that it could “live with it.” Indeed, Russia never emphasized the danger as a direct threat, as Washington saw it. Nevertheless, the Russian attitude to this issue was partly dictated by security concerns of another nature: Moscow feared the “export of insecurity” to its own boundaries, should another big war in the region have ignited — partly because the Kremlin probably overestimated its own relationship with the Islamic Republic. In any case, if the deal holds firm, the idea of a non-nuclear Iran is indeed a decent diplomatic achievement for all involved, including Russia.

It is more nuanced on a bilateral level, and the buzz is about arms sales. Russia and Iran are most likely to come up with a new contract that would have Moscow supply Tehran with its S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. Lifting of the sanctions may — and probably will — revise the provisions of the previous deal signed in 2007, under which Russia was to sell six S-300 batteries for a total of $800 million. Lifting the arms embargo was one of Moscow’s top demands for its Western counterparts during the Vienna negotiations, and Russian arms manufacturers and exporters are among the winners of the deal.

Moscow has already clinched several deals with Tehran in commerce and trade. The two sides already have preliminary agreements for a number of joint industrial projects as well others in the aviation, ship construction and car industry that couldn’t be implemented because of the sanctions. The enthusiasm with which Russian entrepreneurs cajole their Iranian colleagues indicates that Russians foresee the likely return of international businesses to the Iranian market. Some tough competition is expected on the part of Europeans (such as French Peugeot) as well as Turkish and UAE-based companies and financial institutions.