The usual pace of the fight for influence in eastern Syria was altered when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the stakes and US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw US troops from the country shortly thereafter. Now, all interested sides have to demonstrate their ambitions once again and attempt to gain control over areas they seek to influence — in a brand-new configuration.
It is not clear how well Russia, Iran and Turkey were prepared for the announced withdrawal of US forces. Due to the possibility of a vacuum appearing, the Astana format guarantors of the resolution in Syria may face additional challenges and burdens in the geopolitical and economic realms. The void temporarily left in the trans-Euphrates region could potentially be settled by the active involvement of the Arab states that are interested in restraining Iranian and Turkish ambitions. Certain Russian experts cautiously point out that Russia may make a deal on this with the Gulf nations. This argument suggests that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi influenced the opposition in Syria's southwestern de-escalation zone in exchange for the restoration of diplomatic contacts with Damascus and Moscow’s permission to expand their presence in eastern Syria. Previously, Emirati and Saudi delegations repeatedly visited the areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
