Skip to main content

How US-Turkey deal in Manbij could affect Russia's influence

Turkish patrols escorted by US Army helicopters not far from Manbij, Syria, indicate power equations that have favored Russia in northwest Syria could rapidly change.
A picture taken on May 8, 2018 shows vehicles of the US-backed coalition forces in the northern Syrian town of Manbij. - The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor with sources on the ground, says around 350 members of the US-led coalition -- mostly American troops -- are stationed around Manbij. (Photo by Delil souleiman / AFP)        (Photo credit should read DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images)

When analyzing field indicators, it's easy to understand why Russia is the dominant force in northwest Syria both on the ground and in the air. Efforts led by Russia, with Iran and Turkey, to create a de-escalation zone around Idlib over the past year and a half have succeeded, despite minor differences of opinion.

But what happened June 18 definitely was a setback to Russia’s consolidation efforts in northwest Syria. For the first time ever, a Turkish military detachment of two armored personnel carriers and two mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles displaying very visible Turkish flags patrolled along the Sajur River. The river, almost 15 miles from Manbij, constitutes a de facto boundary line between the Turkish military-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.