European Union officials in Brussels are alarmed over the political crisis in Ramallah and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, especially considering US policy in the region and the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem in May. A senior EU official close to High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini defined May as “the month of violence.” Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said, “It seems very difficult to prevent an outburst of Palestinian violence given several factors.”

According to the official, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ punitive economic measures against the Gaza Strip and Hamas have turned the humanitarian crisis in Gaza into a powder keg ready to explode. To that she added the 70-year anniversary of what the Palestinians call Nakba Day on May 15, which commemorates the 1948 Palestinian exodus. The official noted that given the various investigations Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing, Netanyahu wishes to be perceived in Israel as Mr. Security. This could also trigger provocative actions.

Reports received lately by the EU indicate that violent outbreak could take various forms. It could be terror attacks by Hamas and its allies against Israelis on a much larger scale and intensity than in recent years. Another possibility is an uprising by Gaza residents along the fence with Israel directed also against Hamas, or even a full clash in Gaza between Hamas and Israel. Also, one cannot rule out that there will be elements inside Fatah that may attempt to launch an armed intifada.

On the background of these threats, the EU has been consulting with its member states, especially with new German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, attempting to stabilize the situation.