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Saudi-Iranian rapprochement remains mirage

Despite talk of an impending rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facts on the ground suggest that reconciliation is not yet on the horizon.
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Attempts to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia have probably reached a dead end, an Arab diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. The source added that a new path doesn’t seem to be possible given “Tehran’s arrogant approach in the region and its insistence on threatening its neighbors, meddling in their internal affairs and helping destabilize the region.” This appears to put an end to speculation that a new chapter might be ahead between the two Persian Gulf neighbors whose relations saw a drastic deterioration in the past years, notably after Riyadh executed a Saudi Shiite cleric on Jan. 2, 2016, and angry Iranian protesters stormed the kingdom’s diplomatic missions in Tehran and Mashhad in retaliation. Prior to this, a series of events had laid the foundations for the Saudi-Iranian collision, starting with the crisis in Syria that began in March 2011 and including the war in Yemen launched by Riyadh and its allies in March 2015.

Despite the continuing wars in Syria and Yemen, there was room for optimism when Iraqi Interior Minister Qasim al-Araji told reporters in Tehran on Aug. 13 that Saudi officials had asked his government to bridge the gaps with Tehran. Saudi officials later denied Araji’s claims, but this didn’t end the wave of positive thinking that reached its peak during the hajj season. There were 85,000 Iranian pilgrims who participated in this year’s pilgrimage, and news of Saudi and Iranian delegations visiting their respective countries gave the impression that this might be the beginning. Then came the hajj message from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who remarkably didn’t mention Saudi Arabia or its government despite the fact that his message last year was dedicated to criticizing the kingdom and its policies. It was obvious that Iran wanted to send a different message this year, not necessarily in response to Iraq's mediation, but perhaps just as a sign that the Islamic Republic had no intention to escalate the situation, even though the administration in Tehran is quite confident that rapprochement with Riyadh is unlikely.

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