The takeover July 23 of the northern Syrian city of Idlib and several other nearby regions by former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) exposes the northern governorate to possible military operations by both Russia and the international community. The organization, which recently cracked down on its rival Ahrar al-Sham, will have to maintain a careful balancing act in northern Syria, as more radical moves could pressure the group’s internal cohesion, trigger a popular backlash and pit it against the international community, which considers it a terrorist organization. Yet the group’s aggressive behavior reflects the organization’s priority to expand its territory and consolidate its power, which would make it a de facto interlocutor in the cease-fire deals ongoing in Syria.
A string of de-escalation zones have been created in Syria with the implementation of cease-fire deals between rebels and the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — the latest enforced Aug. 3 in Homs. The plan envisions a similar deal for the region of Idlib in northern Syria. However, the recent takeover by HTS of the region may expose the governorate to possible retaliation — if not by Russia, by the international community.