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Ankara's paranoia spikes as Qatar shunned

The news that five Arab countries have cut ties with Qatar, its close regional ally, has rattled Turkey, which depends on its political, military and business ties with Qatar.

Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani (R) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (2ndL), walk past a guard of honor during an official welcoming ceremony prior to their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on December 19, 2014. AFP PHOTO / ADEM ALTAN        (Photo credit should read ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images)
Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (R) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (2nd L) walk past an honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony prior to their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara, Dec. 19, 2014. — ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images

The dramatic decision by five Arab countries to sever ties with Qatar over its alleged coddling of the Muslim Brotherhood and its flirtation with their archenemy Iran has caught the pugnacious emirate’s closest regional ally, Turkey, off balance and wondering whether it too may be targeted.

Turkey’s initial reaction to the announcement by Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Yemen that they were suspending diplomatic ties as well as air and sea travel to and from Qatar was a call for dialogue. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a news conference, “We see the stability in the Gulf region as our own unity and solidarity." He went on, "Countries may of course have some issues, but dialogue must continue … for problems to be resolved peacefully. We are saddened by the current picture and will give any support for its normalization.”

Clearly, Qatar’s predicament will have a ripple effect in Turkey. Turkey’s flourishing political, military and business ties with Qatar have been described and analyzed in exhaustive detail by fellow Al-Monitor columnists Metin Gurcan, Mustafa Sonmez and Fehim Tastekin. As Sonmez pointed out, the Turkish construction giants who are driving the Turkish economy are pinning their hopes on winning contracts in Qatar. While relatively small compared to Qatar's investments elsewhere, injections of Qatari money has brought some relief to Turkey’s faltering finances. Qatar has also helped bankroll Turkey’s Sunni Arab rebel proxies in Syria and piggy-backed on Turkey’s geostrategic clout to amplify its own in the region.

But above all, the increasingly conspiratorial and paranoid mindset in Ankara has some worrying that Turkey may somehow be in the line of fire.

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