Will Turkey leave NATO?
Observers wonder whether an offer of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization would lure Turkey away from NATO and the country's "suffering" at the hands of the European Union.
In 2013, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then Turkey's prime minister, surprised many with his statement about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said, "Get us out of this suffering [of trying to join the European Union]. We are willing to finalize a free trade agreement with Eurasian countries. I talked about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with [you] before. We care about it."
At that time, his statement sounded like a joke, as he himself described it, or perhaps a provocation — a message to Brussels meaning, "Look, we don't need you, we have other options." Few people in Turkey or Russia took it seriously.
In November 2016, President Erdogan again touched upon the question of Turkey's SCO membership. "[Turkey] shouldn’t say, 'I’m for the EU no matter what.' … For example, why shouldn’t Turkey be part of the Shanghai Five [SCO]?” Erdogan told reporters on his return flight from SCO member state Uzbekistan.
This time his words weren't necessarily viewed as a joke, as many things have changed since Erdogan's first statement. First, Turkey's relations with the West have been seriously damaged since a failed coup in July and the subsequent mass arrests in the country. Second, the EU has become less attractive to Turkey. The EU itself has faced a number of problems, including Britain's departure vote (Brexit), the refugee crisis, the rise of anti-Islamic and anti-immigration sentiments, and the surge of far-right movements. Third, Russia's relations with the West have also been dented by the Ukraine crisis and subsequent economic sanctions, making many observers talk of a new Cold War.
